Top 10 in 2018

[Lucian86]

When you win - you tend to play more. For a player that has basis of his game as movement - this is a sure way for an early retirement. Djokovic/Rafa are on that list. Unless they become more aggressive - they will decline. Show me a 30+ year old who is as fast as they are and wins/plays as many matches as they are?

Murray is done.

Hm ! David Ferrer....so are you telling me that he can do it and not these guys who are the top right now ? (ok, Murray has a bad period but virtually he's still top 5 in my mind). Roger as well this year is moving fine (far better than the last year).
I repeat, in 2018 they'll have even more experience to beat the other guys. If they'll be injury free, I think physically they'll still be more than competitive at 30+

PS: Murray is not done at all in my opinion

[djarvik]

When you win - you tend to play more. For a player that has basis of his game as movement - this is a sure way for an early retirement. Djokovic/Rafa are on that list. Unless they become more aggressive - they will decline. Show me a 30+ year old who is as fast as they are and wins/plays as many matches as they are?

Murray is done.

Hm ! David Ferrer....so are you telling me that he can do it and not these guys who are the top right now ? (ok, Murray has a bad period but virtually he's still top 5 in my mind). Roger as well this year is moving fine (far better than the last year).
I repet, in 2018 they'll have even more experience to beat the other guys.

Ferrer is an exception to the rule - not the norm. He also does not win as much as the mentioned guys. He also started winning rather late in his career, so his legs didn't take a beating in early 20s.

I would not say Roger is moving better, maybe slightly, I still think this year will not be a "good" year by his standards. I hope he can prove me wrong, but I don't let a couple of wins early in the season cloud my judgement - he is declining....with every match.

Rafa - knees + other injuries. As much as I like him - Don't see him being able to pull off another comeback like he did. My candidate to retire on top early.
Djoker - hand, and there will be more injuries. As he ages - the "stretches" he does on the court will go away, or worse, will result in some freaky injury.
Murray - back. Back is always serious. Lets see...
Delpo - hand (not going away, being aggravated with more play). If hand does not get better in 1 year or so - he will call it quits.
Berdych - possible, but he will slow down a lot, me thinks. His body-type players always do when they approach 30. Not good enough serve to stay in top 10 just on it.
Wawrinka - played a fraction of time of the top guys....

I like all of these players (besides Murray of course), but in my opinion you are not looking at things objectively, rather make every one an "exception" to the norm. Sure, you may hit a one(few) "correct" predictions, but I doubt it will be all or majority.

But it is my opinion and I may be wrong.

[Lucian86]

Ferrer is an exception to the rule - not the norm. He also does not win as much as the mentioned guys. He also started winning rather late in his career, so his legs didn't take a beating in early 20s

I would not say Roger is moving better, maybe slightly, I still think this year will not be a "good" year by his standards. I hope he can prove me wrong, but I don't let a couple of wins early in the season cloud my judgement - he is declining....with every match.

Rafa - knees + other injuries. As much as I like him - Don't see him being able to pull off another comeback like he did. My candidate to retire on top early.
Djoker - hand, and there will be more injuries. As he ages - the "stretches" he does on the court will go away, or worse, will result in some freaky injury.
Murray - back. Back is always serious. Lets see...
Delpo - hand (not going away, being aggravated with more play). If hand does not get better in 1 year or so - he will call it quits.
Berdych - possible, but he will slow down a lot, me thinks. His body-type players always do when they approach 30. Not good enough serve to stay in top 10 just on it.
Wawrinka - played a fraction of time of the top guys....

I like all of these players (besides Murray of course), but in my opinion you are not looking at things objectively, rather make every one an "exception" to the norm. Sure, you may hit a one(few) "correct" predictions, but I doubt it will be all or majority.

Do you want an objective proof ? Ok ! 30% of the Top 100 today are 30+ years old and the majority of them are 28+. Sure, only 2 are Top 10 right now but there are not so many 30+ years old guys who used to be once solid top 10 player except Hewitt (which is out of top 10 for a long time and mainly not for age reasons), Haas (who's still doing great), Davydenko and Robredo (he also somehow recovered from a bad period).

Nadal, Djokovic and Murray are multiple GS winners, not just regular top 10 guys. I agree with you theoretically when you say that they'll get injured because of their playing styles and that will kick them out the top 10 but not just because they'll get old. As I said, I think they still can be physically competitive at 31 years old and also we have to recognize that these guys are winning not just because they move better than others (which is important, no doubt about that); it's more than that and you know it.

BTw, I was also one of the guys who predicted back in 2007-2008 that Nadal would retire in a couple of years because of the same reasons you mentioned before. Didn't happen and I realize that nowadays because of better medical techniques, players recover way better now than they did in the past from injuries and physical fatigue (besides all using better PED's).

Anyway, out of the 6 current top 10 guys which I think they'll be top 10 also in 2018, I believe that at least 4 of them will make it. Sure, I hope nobody will have serious injuries and it could be that new young stars will rise and beat these guys. I don't know that. I'm just judging the current situation.

[djarvik]

I never said that a 30 year old cannot play well, he sure can! We are talking (at least me) about the top of the game, more specifically, about the current top players.

Sure, only 2 are Top 10 right now

And look who they are! Roger, arguably the best ever, and Ferrer - a major exception to the rule who started winning rather late. Again, just proves my point that it is an exception to the rule, not the norm.

there are not so many 30+ years old guys who used to be once solid top 10 player except Hewitt (which is out of top 10 for a long time and mainly not for age reasons), Haas (who's still doing great), Davydenko and Robredo (he also somehow recovered from a bad period).

you just named quite a few of them, you know were are the rest? RETIRED!

Nadal, Djokovic and Murray are multiple GS winners, not just regular top 10 guys. I agree with you theoretically when you say that they'll get injured because of their playing styles and that will kick them out the top 10 but not just because they'll get old. As I said, I think they still can be physically competitive at 31 years old and also we have to recognize that these guys are winning not just because they move better than others (which is important, no doubt about that); it's more than that and you know it.

Absolutely. Never said they are winning only because of their movement, but I do think that they will not be winning as much, not nearly as much if their movement is hampered by injuries and age. They sure will be competitive, but we are talking about "solid" top 10 here....not just competitive.


Again, these are all opinions. You may as well be right, I just don't think so and the history is on my side.

[Lucian86]

I just don't think so and the history is on my side.

If you consider Djokovic and Nadal champions like Federer, Agassi, Sampras, McEnroe, Lendl, Connors, Muster, Laver, you should know that they all were top 10 at 30+ years old.
I don't know exactly why but players tend to reach their peak nowadays when they're around 28 years old (more or less), usually after 24. Sure, the great champions come out way earlier.
You don't see anymore young guys having great success. There's just one player under20 ranked top100 right now (Thiem).
Becker at 17 was winning Wimbledon and Chang Roland Garros. Now the 17 guys are playing futures and ranked 300+

Why do you guys think it's like that now ?

[djarvik]

It's possible actually.. He ll be 36 by then.. At 35 Agassi won a slam

Not sure how I missed that one 35? more like 32.

Here is a good link if you need this for making future arguments:

http://www.tennis28.com/slams/agerecords_winners.html


The stats really show that chances Federer will win another Major is slim at best. Sure, its possible...but with such a strong competition he has - highly unlikely.

To your question Lucian:

In my opinion and experience, the overall level of the game is up throughout the rankings. Basically, the tour is MUCH deeper now than it ever was. Players start playing earlier and devote more time than ever to become the best. Combined with modernization of nutrition and training, this creates an environment where you have to give it your all in order to have a chance at even playing at that level, let alone progress through the ranks.

Now, talent always rules, but, I think nowadays talent will not be enough. Physical conditioning and fitness overall is an extremely big part. So big that even if you are extremely talented, you will simply be overpowered or outrun if you don't have that fitness.

Fitness and consistency comes with a bit of age, work ethics, regiment. The young and talented cannot break through as before because even in Qualifying they are playing "good" players. Hence the "sweet-spot" age shifted. In one sentence: The tour today is more fitness driven, as before it was more talent driven"

[BrushedBigJJ]

Agassi got to the US open final at 35, where Fed beat him in 4. He was definitely still competitive, but his game was not based on movement so his age didn't slow him down much. And Agassi didn't constantly play a ton of points where he just got the ball back and was willing to let his opponent run him from side to side like a djokivic/Murray/nadal.

[Corbon]

Agassi won his final Slam in a very weak period. I mean, his AO final opponent was Rainer Schüttler FFS. Sampras retired and not a factor anymore anyway, Hewitt and Safin too inconsistent and Federer's big break came a couple months later. So Agassi winning at 32 doesn't mean that much compared to Federer who is constantly facing Nadal and Djokovic.

[Corbon]

This is supposed to be Todd Martin at 38.



Or is that his father maybe?

[Lucian86]

Agassi won his final Slam in a very weak period. I mean, his AO final opponent was Rainer Schüttler FFS. Sampras retired and not a factor anymore anyway, Hewitt and Safin too inconsistent and Federer's big break came a couple months later. So Agassi winning at 32 doesn't mean that much compared to Federer who is constantly facing Nadal and Djokovic.

Sure but what great opponents Djokovic and Nadal could face in 2018 ? Right now I see very few guys. Just Dimitrov, Nishikori, Janowicz (who's having a bad time right now but I except him to come out and play better sooner or later), Thiem ?? (too soon to tell).

[Amazing Matheja]

Ha ha ha ! Paire N°2 ?... Ha ha ha !!!
He's 24, he is not fit enough for several big matchs in a raw (and you have to be fit if you want to win big, big tourneys), mentally he is weak (or completely dumb), and "people" says that he is not a hard worker. He is, he's a pro, but not enough ! If at 24 he hasn't realised that, the train will pass and it will be without him in it ! He has to change a lot of things now I think...
Paire N°2 in the world... Ha ha !...


Edit : And they say in this article "look at the 2008 top ten, where are they now ?" It was 6 years ago ! 2018 is in 4 years ! I don't get it...
To me, in 2018 we'll have MAYBE (in no order) :
Djokovic, Nadal, Murray, Dimitrov, Raonic, Nishikori, Janowicz, Dolgopolov, Cilic (!), maybe DelPotro, Wavrinka (instead of Cilic ^^)...
That said, I do'nt think some will play a lot longer... After Rio 2016, maybe we'll have guys like those Thiem, Kyrgios, Busta, Baena, Fernandes,...

[Corbon]

Raonic would be a contender but he needs to up his ground game and return considerably. Otherwise he will end up like Isner.