by djarvik » Fri, 21 May 2010 18:11
Nadal Is a Lock—Right?
By Tom Perrotta
As the French Open approaches, tennis fans have a question about Rafael Nadal. It’s not, “Will he win the French Open?” Rather, the only question worth asking seems to be, “How easily will he do it?” It’s no wonder why. Nadal cleaned up the clay-court season with 15 wins and zero losses, and captured the three most important titles on offer. He lost just two sets during this run. Best of all, his chronically injured knees made nary a creak.
At this point, a bet against Nadal is akin to a bet against Secretariat. Yet if we step back for a moment, there are signs that this French Open title might not come as easily as the one from 2008, when Nadal mowed down one opponent after another (he won the title without losing a set). There are also good signs for Roger Federer. Very good signs.
Nadal is on a remarkable streak at the moment, and yes, the field is weaker this year than in previous years (two former semifinalists, Juan Martin del Potro and Nikolay Davydenko, have pulled out, and world No. 3 Novak Djokovic is struggling). That said, two questions remain: Has Nadal peaked too soon, and has the Nadal-Federer dynamic changed?
First, consider Nadal’s form. His play was phenomenal in Monte Carlo, excellent in Rome, and very good in Madrid. For Nadal, very good is good enough on clay. But this doesn’t change the fact that he seemed to decline, ever so slightly, as the weeks passed. One can measure Nadal’s confidence by the depth of his shots, and those shots landed a little closer to the service line in Madrid. He also played from further behind the baseline, a defensive style that he employed during his first two titles in Paris. Federer’s drop shot paid dividends. If Nadal becomes too defensive, he’s susceptible to a slugger like Ernests Gulbis, who is looking like this year’s version of Robin Soderling.
Second, and more important, consider the Federer-Nadal rivalry. At first glance, Nadal’s victory over Federer reinforced everything I knew about their dynamic: Federer, the more versatile player, couldn’t solve the singular problem of Nadal’s forehand. It’s the same story we’ve seen play out on clay for years, and more recently on grass and hard courts.
Well, I’ve given it some thought since then and I’m less convinced. Federer didn’t play terribly well in the Madrid final, yet he kept the match close and should have won the second set. In years past, a loss like this might have reduced Federer’s confidence, but I don’t see that happening now. Nadal no longer stands between Federer and a French Open title, or between Federer and a record number of Grand Slam titles. No doubt, Federer would hate to cede their rivalry, and in the process, some of his legacy, to Nadal, as my colleague Steve Tignor notes here. But this can motivate Federer, rather than hold him back, as the prospect of never winning the French Open once did. There’s less pressure now. If Federer and Nadal meet again in the French Open final, there’s a much better chance that Federer will absorb this recent loss and build on it, rather than implode like he did in the 2008 final (he won four games).
I’m not sure that Nadal benefits from beating Federer in Madrid. He’s expected to beat Federer on clay, and he’ll be expected to do it again in two weeks if the opportunity presents itself. For the first time in this rivalry, there’s more on the line at the French Open for Nadal than for Federer. This could play a role in the final.
I spoke to Ivan Lendl about Nadal last week and he agreed that Nadal had played better in Monte Carlo than in Rome or Madrid. Lendl had something more interesting to say about Nadal’s appearance in Madrid, though (we spoke before the final weekend).
“I wouldn’t have played it, especially after I had won in Monte Carlo and Rome,” Lendl said. “It just does not do anything for the French Open, nothing.”
In Lendl’s view, Madrid isn’t good preparation for the French Open because the surface is too slippery and the tournament is held at too high of an altitude. It forces players to adjust their tactics, and then readjust for Paris.
“You have to play a little different game,” Lendl said. “For that reason, I personally think it is a mistake to have that tournament at this time of the year.”
Mistake or no mistake, Madrid did more for Federer than for Nadal. Federer needed to play matches. He needed to beat a few tough players. And he needed to gauge himself against Nadal after not playing his chief rival for a year (he measured up pretty well). Federer ought to be upbeat when the French Open begins. As we learned last year around this time, things can change quickly for him, even on clay.
Level 13 Edberg and counting...